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The IndexCapacity

Capacity

Not a shortage of will or money, but a shortage of the people and time to do the work.

3 problems · all 20 on the Index

Ed. 1

EnergyProblem 0002

The constraint on the energy transition moved from manufacturing to administration, and no tooling followed it. Projects sit in interconnection queues longer than they took to design, studies are redone by hand each time the queue ahead reshuffles, and developers cannot see where they stand or what would move them. Most of the capacity that enters the queue is eventually withdrawn, often after years of waiting.

Who lives with itIndependent power producers · utility interconnection teams · the financiers whose models assume a connection date

Why nowLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's latest queue analysis counts roughly 8,200 active projects representing over two terawatts of generation and storage, a median wait from request to operation of more than five years, and about three quarters of the capacity that requested connection between 2000 and 2020 later withdrawn.

Why it matters · the JudgeA queueing and document problem wearing an engineering costume, exactly the kind that goes unsolved because no single party owns both ends of it. Faster paperwork is the cheapest capacity available anywhere on the grid.

Inspired by reporting from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

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Ed. 1

Enterprise AIProblem 0009

The tooling that would protect a small firm assumes somebody to run it: a console to watch, alerts to triage, a policy to maintain. A twelve-person company has none of those, and a serious incident can threaten the business itself. What is missing is not awareness (owners know) but anything that works without an operator.

Who lives with itOwner-managed firms and their one technical person · the larger customers whose supply chain runs through them · insurers pricing cyber cover

Why nowAn ENISA survey of small and medium enterprises, carried out during the pandemic, found that around nine in ten expected serious harm to their business within a week of a cyber incident and that over half believed it would likely end the business, against a backdrop of low security budgets and a lack of in-house cyber skills.

Why it matters · the JudgeAn existential risk to the firms that make up the overwhelming majority of businesses, where the binding constraint is operator time rather than money or intent. Security that needs nobody to watch it is a different product from the one being sold.

Inspired by reporting from ENISA (European Union Agency for Cybersecurity)

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Ed. 1

WorkProblem 0010

We can now say with some precision which occupations generative AI reaches first, how that varies by country, and that the exposure falls hardest on clerical and administrative work done mostly by women. What does not exist is the other half: a route from an exposed role into an adjacent one that uses the same accumulated judgment. Retraining is too often offered as courses unrelated to what the person already knows how to do.

Who lives with itClerical, administrative and business support workers · employers holding the institutional knowledge in those roles · public employment services

Why nowThe ILO finds 29% of female-dominated occupations carry exposure to generative AI against 16% of male-dominated ones, with exposure reaching around 41% of jobs in high-income countries versus 11% in low-income ones, and women more exposed than men in 88% of the countries analysed.

Why it matters · the JudgeThe measurement is done and the response is missing, which is an unusually clear place to build. Mapping what an exposed role actually contains onto roles needing those same capabilities is a matching problem, and matching problems are tractable.

Inspired by reporting from International Labour Organization

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