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The IndexCollectionsThe measurement gap

The measurement gap

In each of these the physical work is largely solved and the information is not. The loss, the leak or the signal is real and measurable, and is currently recorded either too late or on the wrong side of a handover.

4 problems · all 20 on the Index

Ed. 1

CitiesProblem 0016

Utilities meter at the treatment works and at the customer's tap, and only coarsely in between: a district meter can say how much went missing across a whole area, not where. So loss is known as a percentage far more often than as a place, the response is scheduled rather than targeted (mains replaced by age, not by evidence), and too many leaks are found only when the road subsides or somebody rings.

Who lives with itWater utilities and municipal engineers · households in intermittent-supply cities · regulators setting loss targets

Why nowA widely cited World Bank estimate, published in 2018, puts the water utilities produce but never bill, through physical leaks and commercial losses, at around 126 billion cubic metres a year, nearly $40 billion in lost value.

Why it matters · the JudgeThe cheapest new water available anywhere is the water already treated, already paid for, and lost before it arrives. Turning a percentage into a location is most of the job, and it is an instrumentation and inference problem rather than a civil engineering one.

Inspired by reporting from World Bank

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Ed. 1

LogisticsProblem 0014

Recycling a device profitably depends on knowing what it contains before you open it, and that information was never attached to it. So the pile is handled as undifferentiated waste: shredded for the few metals that survive the process, or stored, or exported. The materials the world is anxious about securing are sitting in it, and a large part of the reason they are not recovered is identification rather than chemistry.

Who lives with itRecyclers and refurbishers · manufacturers facing take-back obligations · anyone sourcing critical minerals

Why nowThe ITU and UNITAR Global E-waste Monitor 2024 recorded 62 million tonnes generated in 2022 with 22.3% formally collected and recycled, around $62 billion of recoverable materials embedded in it, and a projection to 82 million tonnes by 2030 as recycling falls further behind.

Why it matters · the JudgeA known, growing, geographically concentrated pile of valuable material where the binding constraint is knowing what is in each unit. That is a data and vision problem attached to an existing physical industry, a good place for a small team to start.

Inspired by reporting from ITU & UNITAR

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Ed. 1

FoodProblem 0015

Loss happens at the handovers: field to packer, packer to distributor, distributor to shelf. Every party measures only its own side of each one. So each set of numbers looks defensible while the total is enormous, and the interventions that would work are precisely the ones nobody can see, because they sit between two businesses rather than inside one.

Who lives with itGrowers and packers · distributors and independent retailers · redistribution charities working the same corridors

Why nowFAO estimates that 13.3% of the world's food was lost in 2023 after harvest and before retail, on farms and in transport, storage, wholesale and processing, up slightly from 13.0% in 2015 when global monitoring began.

Why it matters · the JudgeMeasurement at the handover is the wedge, and it is cheap: the produce is already photographed, weighed and scanned on both sides of every transfer. Nobody is joining those records, because each side owns only its own.

Inspired by reporting from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

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Ed. 1

EnergyProblem 0003

Training runs, batch inference and analytics are scheduled around deadlines and cluster availability, almost never around what electricity costs or emits at that hour. Much of this work is genuinely movable, a few hours either way or a different region entirely, but the information needed to move it lives in a different system from the scheduler, and in most organisations nothing joins them. So flexible load behaves like inflexible load.

Who lives with itPlatform and infrastructure teams · sustainability leads with compute in their inventory · grid operators courting flexible demand

Why nowThe IEA's April 2025 Energy and AI report puts data centre electricity use at around 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of global consumption, and projects roughly a doubling by 2030 with accelerated servers accounting for almost half the increase: a load growing fast and, unusually for industrial demand, substantially time- and place-shiftable.

Why it matters · the JudgeA large and rapidly growing load is being treated as though it had no flexibility, when a meaningful share of it does. Making compute schedulable against grid signals is a software problem sitting between two industries that do not yet share a vocabulary.

Inspired by reporting from International Energy Agency

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